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This is NSPR’s special program about the local and regional effects of COVID-19 in the North State.Originally broadcast each weeknight, as of late July 2020, the show is now weekly — airing Thursdays at 6:30 p.m. and rebroadcast at 8:30 a.m. the following day. NSPR will continue this special coverage as long as our community needs it. Our mission with this show is to provide accurate news and information about COVID-19 in our region.

Study Asks: How Do Your Beliefs About The Infectiousness Of COVID-19 Affect Your Behavior?

New research suggests misinformed beliefs about the infectiousness of COVID-19 can lead people to take a fatalistic attitude to the virus, possibly forgoing hand washing and social distancing guidelines. 

NSPR's Andre Byik recently spoke with Jesper Akesson, the lead author of the National Bureau of Economic Research working paper "Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During The Covid-19 Pandemic." Akesson worked with co-authors from the University of Oxford and Boston University, and he also is the managing director of The Behaviourlist, a consulting firm based in London. 

Here are highlights from their conversation. You can also listen at the top of the page.

Interview Highlights

On what they set out to discover in their study

So my co-authors and I set out to understand what people believe about the infectiousness of COVID-19. Also how people's beliefs about the infectiousness influence their behavior, and also whether we can change these beliefs and improve their behavior. 

So, in order to answer these questions, we conducted an experiment with about 3,600 people, half were living in the U.S. and about half in the UK. So we began by inviting participants to take part in an online survey. They weren't aware that this was an experiment of any sort. So we started the survey by asking them a few questions about their socioeconomic background, and their beliefs about COVID-19. Once we've done that, we moved on to then randomly allocating these survey participants to one of three groups. So one-third was shown sort of like a poster with a lower-bound expert estimate of the infectiousness of COVID-19. More specifically, we told them that studies have found that someone who contracts COVID-19 would, on average, infect two other people. One-third was shown an upper-bound expert estimate of the infectiousness of COVID-19. And there we said, one person would on average infect five others. And then one-third was just shown nothing. And they were asked to continue with the survey.

On their findings

After we administered these treatments, we then measured their beliefs about the infectiousness of the virus, and then how willing they were to engage in various protective behaviors such as hand washing, or avoid seeing people in high-risk groups. 

And so we've had three main findings I think. Where the first one was that people are actually really misinformed about the virus. And so at the time of the experiment, which was sort of in late March, most experts estimated that one person would on average infect somewhere between one and six others if they contract the virus. However, in our experiment, we found that, on average, people believe that one person would infect 28 others. So that's a big discrepancy. 

Second, we found that it's possible to change people's beliefs about the virus by presenting them with these posters with statistics on them. I mean, in fact, showing these estimates or these posters, revised people's beliefs about the infectiousness downward from around 28 to around 20. So there's still a big discrepancy between the kind of actual infectiousness and what they believed, but at least the posters brought them closer to that true number. 

And then finally, and perhaps most interestingly, we found that believing that COVID-19 is more infectious makes people, on average, less willing to engage in various protective behaviors such as such as hand washing, or seeing people in high risk groups. And then we also found that the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the more pessimistic they become about their future. So this is something we called the fatalism effect. In other words, people might be thinking that, you know, oh COVID-19 is really infectious, which means I'm going to get it anyway. So why bother with any of these protective behaviors? This is of course not a good take. And it's very dangerous to not do that. So it's an effect that has a big potential negative consequence for society.

On what the potential negative consequences of fatalism are

So just very simply put, I mean, if you don't want to wash your hands, you're more likely to contract the virus, you're more likely to fall ill and also to infect others. It's very difficult to calculate exactly what fatalism might lead to. But we do know that at least the effect would be substantial enough to lead to quite a few deaths actually, across the states.

On what they’ve learned about changing beliefs and behaviors about the virus

So we found that their beliefs were really off the mark when we conducted the survey. And showing people the posters did sort of correct a lot of people's beliefs. So beliefs were really scattered all over the place when we first asked the question about the infectiousness. And then after they'd seen these posters, most people actually thought that the infectiousness was somewhere close to like one person that would infect somewhere between one and five other people. 

However, there were still some people that thought that the infectiousness was closer to like 100, or something like this, which meant that the average wasn't brought down as much as we'd wanted to, but showing the posters did correct most people's beliefs. So it does work. We're not sure if it works in the long run. I mean, it could very well be that we corrected people's beliefs for the duration of the survey, but then they go out in the world and speak to somebody and then change their mind again, but at least we know that it is possible to change them at least for a short period of time.

On how the lifting of stay-at-home orders affects the consequences of a fatalistic attitude

When we have stay-at-home orders, even those who feel fatalistic, aren't able to fully act upon that impulse. I mean, they still have to stay at home, and they aren't free to go and see their friends. However, fatalism does become a much bigger problem once the orders are lifted, because then those who feel like I'm going to get it anyway and now have the freedom to act irresponsibly. In other words, I think that once these stay-at-home orders have been relaxed, it becomes even more important to communicate with people and ensure that they understand that social distancing is important, and also that what they do makes a difference.

On the balance officials must find when talking about the seriousness of the virus

That's a very difficult question. I think our study doesn't necessarily answer that question. And I think that's something that future studies have to look into. I think really what we highlight is that there is a trade off, right? So if you say that it is very infectious or very dangerous, you might make people feel more concerned and take the disease more seriously. But on the other hand, it might backfire by making people feel fatalistic. So it's really important that future studies investigate this I think.

On economic impacts of people’s beliefs about the virus

One aspect is we just simply find that the more infectious you believe that COVID-19 is, the less optimistic you become. And there are quite a few studies done in the past that link your optimism to your investment and saving decisions. So it might be that we see a reduction in economic behavior because of fatalism. 

But then I think the more important point is, very simply, fatalism makes people act more recklessly. And that causes damages in terms of health and well being, and then ultimately, also economic costs.

On limitations of the study

The main limitation is that we're conducting this survey online, and we're asking people about their intentions to do things. So we alter their beliefs, and then we see what they say they will do. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will go and do that. So I think future studies should definitely try to conduct this type of research in the field, where they actually record what people do. That's very difficult to do though, because for example, washing your hand is a very private behavior, right, which is difficult to observe in a study.

On the main takeaway from this study

I think the main takeaway is that policymakers have to think very carefully about the messages they convey. It's crucial that they stress the importance of social distancing and engaging in other important behaviors, but they have to do that in ways that do not induce feelings of fatalism or hopelessness. I believe a good way forward — and again, we don't explicitly test this in the experiment — is to just stress the seriousness of the situation, but also really emphasize that what every individual does and what they choose makes a big difference for themselves and for others.

This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity. Click the “play” button to listen to the entire interview.

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