EMILY KWONG, HOST:
Now we turn to someone who knows what it's like to lead high-stakes negotiations with Iran to ask, is there a diplomatic way forward now? Robert Malley was a lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, under the Obama administration. He also served as special envoy for Iran under Joe Biden. Robert Malley, welcome to the program.
ROBERT MALLEY: Thanks for having me.
KWONG: When you saw the news today, what was your first reaction?
MALLEY: Well, my first reaction was that this was predictable at this point. President Trump was going through the motions of diplomacy but intending to strike at some point. And that's what happened, so I was not particularly surprised.
KWONG: Now that it's believed that Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei is dead, what do you think?
MALLEY: Again, I think this is clearly one of the first targets of the Israeli or the American strikes, and so it's not a huge surprise, although one might have thought that the supreme leader would have taken greater precaution. Clearly, this supreme leader has marked the history of Iran for many, many decades now. And so over time, the fact that he's no longer there - assuming that this is a true report - will have an impact on the trajectory of Iran.
I don't think that it has a particularly strong bearing on the impact of the war as it is now unfolding. Iran is not simply ruled by a man. It is a system. It is a regime that has roots and tentacles within the country. Therefore, it's hard to imagine that this is going to dramatically shift the way they prosecute the war or the way they react to its next phases.
KWONG: The U.S. has tried and paid heavily for three regime changes in the Middle East since the turn of the century - Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Does this fit into a pattern, and if so, how?
MALLEY: It does fit into pattern. And you know, in some ways, you know, President Trump is doing something that is quite unique and quite extraordinary. I should add unlawful, unnecessary and unjustified. But it does set itself in a longer tradition of America seeking to change the nature of governments in the Middle East. You mentioned those. Obviously, there are others in other regions of the world. None of the ones that you mentioned turned out particularly well, and that is reason for caution. And again, one of the reasons why wars should only be launched when they are necessary, justified and legal is because things could often turn out very differently from the way one thinks at the outset.
KWONG: The president posted a video to Truth Social this morning speaking directly to the Iranian people, and I want to play a portion of that video for you.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.
KWONG: What do you make of this message now, in the aftermath of the news that Khamenei might be dead?
MALLEY: Well, I mean, he did say that. He also said, you know, take shelter. And once the regime has been truly weakened, you should take it over. This is, sort of, if you want to look at division of labor and division of responsibility, the U.S. leads the major strikes. Iran is going after the political leadership, and as I said, I suspect that they have some people on the ground to do some other work.
And then the third leg in this division of labor that the president has assigned is the Iranian people. Now, he didn't really consult with them. He doesn't know what they prepare to do. He doesn't know what risks they are prepared or not to take. But it is quite striking that he's saying that...
KWONG: Yeah.
MALLEY: ...The U.S. is not going to finish the job. He's asking the Iranian people to do so. And what will he do if either they don't, or if they do and they get massacred, as they did in the past? He leaves that unanswered as well.
KWONG: What would you advise the president to do at this moment? You've served under previous presidents. What do you think he should do?
MALLEY: I'm going to disappoint you, but that's not a question I'm prepared to answer because I would never have advocated that he get into the position he's in. I think there were a number of opportunities to reach a diplomatic deal with Iran. I think he had the possibility of reaching a deal that he could have credibly said was superior to the one that President Obama had negotiated in 2015. So to give advice at this point when the situation is so far from what ought to have been is beyond what I feel I'm prepared to do.
KWONG: What are you going to be watching for in the coming hours and days and weeks?
MALLEY: I mean, I think the real question is, what is the U.S. goal? And that has been a question that has been at the heart of anyone watching President Trump for the last seven months in his dealings with Iran because he has shifted the goalposts several times. He has said one thing and it's opposite, and he's the kind of leader who is able to present any outcome -even one that is far, far, far from what he announced would be the case - and describe it as a success and then try to persuade the world that it's the case and never listen to detractors who will say otherwise. I think what we need to be watching is how long, how intensely the U.S. is prepared to wage this war and, of course, how Iran responds.
At this point, what's striking about the Iranian response is that they were immediately willing and prepared to launch missiles not just at Israel, not - but also at U.S. bases in neighboring countries and also at targets in neighboring countries that are not associated with the U.S., which suggests to me one of two things and perhaps both. Number one, that the Iranian regime really doesn't have that many options, smart options to respond, so they're responding in any way they can. And number two, that they're hoping that by raising the cost on the U.S., on its allies, on international shipping, that the cost will be so great that the president will decide that he needs the exit ramp.
You know, it's that dance, that - what has been a macabre dance between the U.S. and Iran now for 47 years. This is the latest chapter. I don't know if it's the last one, but it's the latest one in which each side takes actions that provokes a worse reaction by the other.
KWONG: Former U.S. special envoy for Iran Robert Malley, thank you so much for talking to us.
MALLEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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