ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
Viktor Orban has been widely criticized for chipping away at Hungary's democratic institutions in the past 15 years as prime minister. Now a challenger leads Orban by double digits in the polls ahead of next Sunday's election. Today, Orban convened an emergency meeting and made claims of threats to a pipeline, something the opposition says is an operation aimed at influencing the vote and stoking fear. To understand what's at stake, I spoke with political analyst Zsuzsanna Vegh, and I asked her about this new threat to Orban.
ZSUZSANNA VEGH: A new political actor entered the scene, Peter Magyar, who is now leading the opposition party, Tisza, coming actually from Orban's own party, Fidesz. He managed to both embody and also to gather and capture the disillusionment with the Orban regime that has been both present in the traditional opposition and the opposition voters but also among a disillusioned segment of Fidesz's voting base.
SCHMITZ: That's interesting. You know, tell me a little bit about why Peter Magyar, the opponent to Orban in this political race - why is he so popular with people?
VEGH: There are multiple components to this. On the one hand, coming from Fidesz, having a conservative, right-wing profile, he was an acceptable political candidate for those voters who used to vote for Fidesz but may have had enough of the corruption, may have been disillusioned with the governing party. So Peter Magyar managed to capture this very wide electorate. And by actually being very present, going all over the country, touring the country, effectively, talking to people, he managed to build a credibility that I think some of the old opposition parties never managed to actually pull off.
SCHMITZ: You just mentioned that Orban is heavily criticized for corruption. He's also criticized for his ties with Russian president, Vladimir Putin. I wanted to play some tape of elite recorded conversation between Hungary's foreign minister, Peter Szijjarto, and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov. You'll hear Lavrov speak first.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
SERGEY LAVROV: You were on all headlines in the Russian media today (laughter).
PETER SZIJJARTO: Oh, did I say something wrong?
LAVROV: No, no, no, no, no. They were just saying that you are pragmatically fighting for the interests of your country.
SZIJJARTO: Oh, well, well. That's a very, let's say, nice, let's say, analysis of the situation.
LAVROV: Nice way to put it (laughter).
SCHMITZ: So Lavrov there - Russia's foreign minister - then asks Szijjarto to use his power in the European Union to lift sanctions on the sister of one of Russia's richest oligarchs. Szijjarto says he'll do that. And he says to Lavrov, quote, "always at your service." I'm curious, you know, what's been the public's reaction inside of Hungary to this?
VEGH: It's deeply polarized. On the one hand, the opposition and the opposition voters reject this behavior, and I would say probably does not come as a surprise to many. This is a polarizing matter that people see through the lens of who they are favoring in domestic politics.
SCHMITZ: So Hungary is a member of the European Union. What is at stake in this election in Hungary for the European Union as a whole?
VEGH: Over the past several years, Hungary has become a thorn in the side of the European Union, blocking joint decision-making, especially on Ukraine, but also making policy making very difficult for European allies. The deep ties with Russia are very concerning for Hungary's partners. So what is at stake really is whether the European Union will continue to have a Russian Trojan horse in the ranks of the union. Or there may be a change whereby the EU would have a partner with which it can negotiate and cooperate on more equal terms.
SCHMITZ: Right. The election is next Sunday. If Orban should lose, how do you think he'll give up power? What might be the scenario?
VEGH: I think it matters to what extent he would lose and what we see happening on election day. If the lead is very convincing, Orban will have a hard time to contest. But I would expect that in districts where the results are close, there will be contestations, and either - actually, either side may challenge the result and would request recounts. There have been concerns raised about Orban not handing over power should he lose. I think that would be a very risky move, and there would be political and, I think very soon also, economic and financial consequences. So my expectation is, should Orban lose, he would likely hand over power.
SCHMITZ: That is Zsuzsanna Vegh. She's a political analyst at the German Marshall Fund. Zsuzsanna, thank you.
VEGH: Thank you very much.
(SOUNDBITE OF APHEX TWIN'S "ALBERTO BALSALM") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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