AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The fertility rate in the U.S. has dropped again to a new record low. The trend, detailed in a new federal report out today, means that about 700,000 fewer babies were born last year in the U.S., compared to the peak in 2007. NPR's Brian Mann has been reporting on population trends and joins us now. Hi, Brian.
BRIAN MANN, BYLINE: Hi, Ailsa.
CHANG: Hi. OK, so this drop is pretty huge, I know, compared to 2007. But what about just compared to last year, 2025?
MANN: Yeah, this is a gradual evolution. I spoke about this with Brady Hamilton. He's the lead researcher on this study. He's at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He told me this one-year drop in 2025 alone isn't dramatic, but it builds on this much larger shift.
BRADY HAMILTON: There was a decline in the general fertility rate between 2024 and 2025 of 1%. Since 2007, there's been a decline in the general fertility rate of 23%.
MANN: Twenty-three percent, Ailsa. It's that second figure that's really significant. As you mentioned, it means far fewer babies now being born in the U.S. every year, and it's a pattern many experts think is changing the fabric of our society.
CHANG: How so, changing the fabric of our society?
MANN: You know, already, people in the U.S., especially young women, are just charting much different lives. Women in their teens and 20s are having dramatically fewer children. Being a mom in your 20s used to be really the norm in the U.S. Now half of women in the U.S. enter their 30s without having children. If that pattern holds up, economists and demographers say the country's already aging population is going to gray much faster and also begin to shrink much sooner.
CHANG: Yeah. Can we talk about why we think women and couples are having smaller families these days?
MANN: There's a lot of debate over this. Some experts think it's basically economics. Women and couples are facing soaring costs for housing and child care. They just don't feel prosperous enough to have two or three kids. And there are also big cultural changes. Research shows having one child or no kids at all now feels normal. It's accepted a lot more than in the past. It's important to point out also this trend toward fewer children in the U.S. matches what we're seeing all over the world. In more and more countries, including here in the U.S., birth rates have dropped below replacement rate. That means there aren't enough children being born to maintain a stable population.
CHANG: I mean, this trend has been pretty consistent for almost 20 years, right? Are the people you're talking to confident that birth rates will remain low or even continue to keep dropping?
MANN: Yeah, some researchers tell me they do think this pattern is pretty locked in now. They point to countries like China, Italy, Japan, where once this downward trajectory gets started, it's really hard to stabilize or reverse it. And officials in those - in many of those countries say they're facing serious demographic crises. But there's debate over how this will play out here in the U.S. I spoke today with Martha Bailey. She's an economist at the California Center for Population Research. She thinks it's possible that in the U.S., this big societal shift will mean something different. It could mean more older women having babies.
MARTHA BAILEY: We're seeing big drops in fertility rates for young women, so teenagers, women in their 20s. What's not yet clear is whether or not those same women will go on to have children later on. Yes, fertility rates are dropping, but it doesn't mean that U.S. family sizes will necessarily end up that much smaller.
MANN: CDC data does show more women in their 30s and 40s giving birth in the U.S., but not nearly enough, Ailsa, to offset the big drop among younger women.
CHANG: You know, all of this is making me think about another demographic reality. Like, we're seeing much lower immigration here into the U.S. Does it matter that lower immigration is happening at the same time as this drop in the number of babies being born here?
MANN: Yeah, absolutely. Population growth in the U.S. is slowing dramatically. A report by the Congressional Budget Office found these two trends together - lower fertility rates and lower immigration - these are really huge in combination, and that could affect everything from the size of our labor force to the stability of pension programs and Social Security.
CHANG: That is NPR's Brian Mann. Thank you, Brian.
MANN: Thanks, Ailsa. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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