With the public, interest groups and policymakers focused on the fairness and potential for success of water conservation efforts, another perhaps equally dire concern is gathering as California’s drought drags on into a fourth dry season.
With measurable Sierra snow at all-time lows and many of the state’s reservoirs already at levels more typical of late summer, the months ahead are expected to bring unprecedented challenges to agriculture, aquatic species and ordinary residents. A wholly different but entirely related concern is also bearing down.
“All the indicators we currently have are pointing to a much above normal fire season once again,” said Basil Newmerzhycky, a fire weather meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service’s predictive services division.
Newmerzhycky said that in a normal year fire consumes about 170,000 acres of wild lands. Last year the total neared half a million acres.
This summer could well be worse. In addition to trees stressed by four consecutive dry winters, mild weather enabled pine bark beetle infestations to advance further north in the Sierra. Sick and weakened trees are especially susceptible. The timing of this year’s rains has also added risk to an already perilous situation.
“In our case we have the worst combination,” Newmerzhycky said. “We did receive much above normal rainfall in the fall and early winter months. October, November, December were much wetter than normal, so that set the new growth into stage; however, with the last three months being significantly drier than normal, actually record dry, we are now well ahead of schedule for our spring and summer drying.”
Newmerzhycky said current conditions across the Sierra are about normal for June. He said forests will likely be especially susceptible to seasonal dry lightning strikes typical for June. One possible ray of hope — if El Nino conditions continue and strengthen, next year’s rains could arrive early.
