STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Let's talk about last night's Texas primary with Brandon Rottinghaus, who is a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Welcome.
BRANDON ROTTINGHAUS: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: Did it surprise you that Paxton won by so much? The last I checked, he was around 70 - 64% of the vote.
ROTTINGHAUS: The margin was surprising. The fact that it was called so early was surprising. But I think wasn't - what wasn't surprising was that this is really the end of the Bush era of the Republican model. Cornyn symbolized the traditional Texas GOP that had come to power in the early 1990s and had been so successful for decades. That business-oriented, institutional conservative that has a pragmatic streak was effectively defeated last night by Ken Paxton, but also as a proxy by Donald Trump.
INSKEEP: Well, I want a national audience to get to know Paxton a little. He is a big Trump supporter. He's a culture warrior, I think that's fair to say. He used his office to sue Obama once upon a time. He used his office to sue President Biden. But he also was indicted. What for?
ROTTINGHAUS: Yeah, he has carried serious ethical and legal controversies for most of his tenure as attorney general. The biggest issue, as you mentioned, was a long-running securities fraud indictment that dated back to 2015, stemming from allegations that he misled investors before taking office. He also faced the FBI whistleblower investigations from top aides who accused him of abusing his office to help a donor. This triggered those impeachment proceedings in 2023. He also is at the center of a very high-profile extramarital affair that effectively led to the breakdown of his almost 40-year marriage.
Paxton turned this impeachment into a loyalty test. So rather than letting it define him politically, he was able to convince Republican voters that the impeachment was a politically motivated attack. His allies came to his aid, and those legal troubles effectively became like a political armor in a lot of ways that were a kind of tool that Donald Trump had used.
INSKEEP: I just want to recall that impeachment. He was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives - a very Republican body - so this was not partisan. And if I recall, he was expected to be convicted in the Senate, but somebody rode to his rescue. How did he get out of it?
ROTTINGHAUS: In effect, the lieutenant governor was able to - as the judge, by law and by the Constitution - put his finger on the scale and flip some of those votes. That's the way that he essentially was surviving this really important scandal. And I think it tells us that not only is Paxton a political survivor in this way through these multiple scandals, but that - in a general way that scandals don't hit like they used to. Voters don't see these as disqualifying. And Republican voters are looking for ideological commitment over some kind of ethical purity.
INSKEEP: Are there big donors in Texas who stood behind Paxton?
ROTTINGHAUS: There are some big donors for sure that have been very vocal and who have been very generous financially to several of these big Republicans - and they've really moved the needle in Texas. That's always been the way that Texas has operated, but this is really a new world. And although they're not always successful politically, these big donors have been very successful at saving Ken Paxton.
INSKEEP: OK. So let's now talk about the general election. The initial assessment is, oh, Republicans have a little bit of a risk here. Paxton seems weak. Talarico, the Democrat, seems strong, but I just want to begin by noting this guy has won multiple statewide general elections in Texas, has he not?
ROTTINGHAUS: That's so true. And I think that the optimism for Democrats is definitely well placed. There are moments, and this is a time of a kind of perfect storm. But I think it's also the case that Republicans are still dominant in Texas, and Democrats getting a foothold is a big challenge in terms of money, in terms of messaging and in terms of getting the voters mobilized. The Democrats have gained, I think, a psychological opening here in Texas. It's certainly the case that Cornyn's loss has exposed fractures in the GOP. And Democrats have a clear argument about why Texas Republicans maybe aren't the best to lead, but it's still the case that the Democrats' biggest problem is that they're often defined before they can define themselves.
INSKEEP: And I'm also just thinking about the demographics. There was a time when demographics seemed to favor Democrats. They believed they were going to win Texas eventually - didn't happen in 2018, hasn't happened in more recent elections. And in fact, in 2024, the growing Hispanic vote - which Democrats thought was going to bring them Texas - leaned a little more in the Republican direction. Where's that Hispanic vote going now as we head into the 2026 voting?
ROTTINGHAUS: Yeah, Steve, you're totally right. The Democrats for decades talked about how demographics were destiny. And that, I think, is true, but the thing is that elections get in the way, and you've got to be able to persuade people. So the Latino vote did shift significantly in 2024 to Donald Trump and the Republicans. We're seeing that shift back. Part of the reason is that you've got the issues that Donald Trump ran on didn't materialize in a way that a lot of those voters wanted. And there are new issues now that have come up that are problematic for Republicans in a midterm. That is specifically the economy, inflation and jobs.
So you're seeing a bit of a rebound here. Democrats are optimistic they can take some of these votes back - and if they can, and they can run up those numbers a little bit in places like big urban areas - then they can be successful.
INSKEEP: Brandon Rottinghaus at the University of Houston, thanks so much.
ROTTINGHAUS: Thanks, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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