ADRIAN FLORIDO, HOST:
The Trump administration has been waging an aggressive crackdown on immigration. Some have warned that that could create hiring headaches in industries like restaurants and construction that depend heavily on immigrant workers. You wouldn't know that, though, from the latest jobs report. It shows that employers added a solid 172,000 jobs in May, including many in those sensitive sectors. So what gives? NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now to talk about this. Hey, Scott.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Hi, Adrian.
FLORIDO: So how is the administration's immigration policy affecting the job market?
HORSLEY: I think there's no question it has shrunk the size of the workforce relative to what it would otherwise be. As you've reported, the administration has been waging a very visible campaign to arrest and deport workers who are in the country illegally. It's also been closing off various legal avenues of immigration.
And there's a good deal of research to suggest that is resulting in fewer jobs - not only for immigrants, but for native-born workers as well. Researchers at the Brookings Institution recently put out a paper comparing cities that saw the biggest jump in immigration arrest with the rest of the country, and they found that where the crackdown is most intense, there's real fallout in terms of lower employment, hundreds of thousands fewer jobs than there otherwise might be.
Now, those job losses are concentrated in industries like construction and food service that employ a lot of immigrant workers, but other industries also feel the effects. And employment among native-born workers also took a hit because, you know, when you deport a crew of immigrant roofers, for example, well, the construction foreman might lose his job as well.
FLORIDO: And yet, Scott, this new jobs report shows a lot of new jobs added in May. So how do these two things square?
HORSLEY: Yeah, it's a bit of a head-scratcher, but it's not to say the immigration crackdown isn't taking a toll. I mean, it's possible job gains would have been even stronger without the crackdown. Among industries that rely heavily on foreign-born workers, though, construction firms added 17,000 jobs in May; home healthcare added 11,000; restaurants, 48,000. Economist Kory Kantenga of LinkedIn says this does suggest the immigration crackdown hasn't completely choked off employers' ability to hire.
KORY KANTENGA: At the moment, no, they're still finding workers and adding jobs. The concern is that, over a longer period, that that's going to start to really constrain these industries.
HORSLEY: You know, it's just going to take time to sort out the results of what is really a massive real-world experiment. In many cases, the crackdown doesn't result in immigrants leaving the country. Maybe they just go underground, and in that case, they don't show up anymore on the official government statistics.
FLORIDO: Scott, are there any signs that employers are having a harder time finding workers?
HORSLEY: We certainly hear reports of worker shortages here and there. The Federal Reserve's most recent Beige Book, for example - which tallies anecdotal reports from around the country - said the immigration crackdown has led to a shortage of landscaping workers in New England and that wages in that industry are going up as a result.
But there's no evidence it's happening on a widespread basis. In fact, wage gains have generally been cooling in recent months. In May, the average worker's wage was up just 3.4% from a year ago, which is a smaller annual increase than the month before. In fact, over the last couple of months, prices have been going up faster than wages have. So Kantenga says the average worker has actually been losing ground.
KANTENGA: At the moment, workers just don't have the leverage to push their pay up with prices rising the way that they are. That is certainly squeezing workers. So they're getting squeezed from all sides. They're getting squeed from the labor market side. They're getting squeezed from the consumer side.
HORSLEY: Now, it's possible over time] the immigration crackdown will produce a tighter job market, and that could result in bigger wage gains. But there's no guarantee. Keep in mind, the immigrants who are leaving the country or going underground are not only workers, they're also consumers. And if they're not earning paychecks or going to the supermarket and spending money, that could mean a smaller economy and fewer jobs for everybody.
FLORIDO: Well, NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks for breaking this down for us.
HORSLEY: Good to be with you.
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