LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Jessica Taylor joins me now to discuss what we'll learn from today's primaries. She's the Senate and governors editor with the Cook Political Report, which provides nonpartisan, independent analysis of U.S. elections and campaigns. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
JESSICA TAYLOR: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: So the Wisconsin governor's race is shaping up to be a major test for progressives in the Democratic Party. If state representative Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, wins the Democratic primary, it would be another big win for the left flank of the Democratic Party. What will that tell us about what Democratic voters are looking for?
TAYLOR: I think this has been a really messy primary, as Anya talked about, but it will tell us that there is a real progressive movement toward the left. But unlike Abdul El-Sayed last week, Hong has struggled when it comes to media appearances. She has struggled to communicate. She has gotten off message. And so I think that's one thing that's worrying national Democrats more than anything. She doesn't have as strong of a campaign infrastructure.
And as you were talking about earlier, this is such a critical swing state, I think, even more so than Michigan. It is just one of the most evenly divided quintessential swing states in the country. And, you know, I had a Democratic strategist tell me, you know, she just kind of needs to come across as being normal. And when she talks about, for instance, canceling Thanksgiving or something like that, if she comes across as too outside of the mainstream, that's where she really risks, I think, alienating those critical swing voters in the state.
FADEL: So they're worried that her broader appeal is just not there once it comes to the November midterm elections?
TAYLOR: I think so. And also, again, she's just not a very strong communicator. I think in one-on-one campaigning - you know, she's done some certainly interesting things and boosted young voters. But the key to winning a state like Wisconsin is to winning white working-class voters and to - getting independent voters over to your side. And if Tom Tiffany, who's running a strong campaign and has run sort of creative ads, talking about being sort of a girl dad and he's a former dam tender, if he can win over - you know, gubernatorial elections are less about federal issues, and they're more about state issues and they're more about the person and the candidate. And so I think he has a real shot to flip this seat. You know, there's also - you know, she's - I think she just needs to run a stronger, more communicative campaign and focus on fiscal issues, which I think is her bread and butter.
FADEL: What is her appeal in this primary?
TAYLOR: I think it's that, you know, she talks about, for instance, data centers has really - a data center moratorium has helped her rise in the primary. She's the only candidate that's called for that. But I think also she's benefited from the chaos of the primary that the frontrunner, the more centrist leading candidate, imploded. You've had David Crowley that's had to get back in the race. He has the governor's endorsement. Had this happened a month ago or something. I think it - the race might have looked a little differently, but she's also benefited from just the upheaval in the Democratic primary as well.
FADEL: We're watching these more progressive candidates invigorating and exciting a good part of the Democratic Party's voters, but will they be able to appeal to the more moderate Democrats who didn't choose them in the primaries? Let alone independents and other voters come November. And I'm not just talking about Wisconsin here, but Michigan and other states.
TAYLOR: That's the real test this cycle because these are not candidates that were running in Manhattan or running in Denver. They're now running in swing states. And I think this will tell us something about the viability of a national progressive candidate in 2028. I think there's going to be a lot of finger-pointing if these progressive candidates lose very winnable races. I mean, Michigan is absolutely critical to holding that for Democrats to their hopes of taking back the Senate majority. Losing a seat like Wisconsin where they need - where the Democrats are eyeing taking back state legislature.
If they lose those, that could have massive implications for 2028 when it comes to election reforms and redistricting. So these states are so critical that, again, I think there's just going to be a lot of recriminations if these progressive candidates do not perform as well in a general election as they do in a primary. There is just - they appeal to a different type of electorate. Can they move to the middle and can they appeal to independents, or do they have limited viability to just their supporters?
FADEL: And really quickly, is there a divide on the right as we're seeing on the left with the Democratic Party going on, going into the midterm elections?
TAYLOR: Well, we have seen, I think, that Trump has sort of erased that because the candidates are so allied with him. But we saw this happen in 2010, for instance, when you had Tea Party candidates that lost very winnable races for the Senate. Even though Republicans picked up the House and won 63 seats in 2010, they did not win the Senate because of these more controversial, more extreme candidates, and this could be a replay of that midterm election. I think that's what Democrats are worried about.
FADEL: We'll see what happens in November. That's Jessica Taylor, editor of U.S. Senate and governors coverage at the Cook Political Report. Thank you.
TAYLOR: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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