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Ex-Pentagon official on the prospects of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Let's dive a little deeper now into these Ukraine peace negotiations with Evelyn Farkas. She served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia under President Obama. And now she's executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. Good morning, and welcome to the program.

EVELYN FARKAS: Good morning, Leila. Thanks for having me.

FADEL: So we just heard the Ukrainian president yesterday had the same thing to say before and after the meeting with President Trump, that they were at 90% agreement. So was any real progress made toward peace yesterday?

FARKAS: Right. I mean, look, it sounds like we are getting closer. The United States and Ukraine are getting closer to an understanding about, you know, what might be the maximum that we would be able to go in terms of compromise with Russia. But the problem is that, as Danielle said in her reporting, we don't know whether Russia is willing to make any compromise at all. So it is very positive that President Trump is engaged.

It's fantastic that, you know, Ukraine, of course, is making - I don't know if it's fantastic that they're making concessions, but it is constructive. They're looking at all types of options, Leila, and that's always a good thing. But, you know, again, we have to remain mindful of the fact that Ukraine's been compromising already with us - and, frankly, that means with Russia - and Russia has shown no sign of compromise so far.

FADEL: Well, let me ask you about that because before the meeting, President Trump spoke with Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin. How significant was it that he made that call, and also that he said Russia wants to see a successful Ukraine during the press conference yesterday, even after Russia continued its attacks over the weekend?

FARKAS: Yeah, I'll be honest, I was a little bit unsettled because President Trump has this pattern of speaking to President Putin before he speaks with President Zelenskyy, before he has major conversations with President Zelenskyy. We know that when he spoke with President Putin earlier this year that it was on the cusp of him, of President Trump, making a decision about providing long-range missiles to Ukraine. And he came out of the meeting with President Putin essentially saying what he often says after he talks to Russia and sort of did again this time, that Russia wants peace, and also was very negative and ultimately did not decide to green light providing those long-range missiles to Ukraine.

So I think that the brake that President Putin has on President Trump in these calls is not necessarily constructive because it allows President Putin to get the last word in before President Trump goes into a meeting, which isn't to say that this time I don't notice some difference, because I think that President Trump's advisers, the secretary of state and others, have clearly done a lot homework. And they've done a lot of preparation also with our president. But I don't think that it was the right signal to send. We'll see what happens, whether he goes back and calls him again. It is good that he spoke with the Europeans as well after the meeting. But again, I would - you know, I think it's preferable that President Trump speaks to his advisers and then speaks with the Ukrainians and later loops in the Russians.

FADEL: Does Russia want peace?

FARKAS: No, I do not believe that Russia wants peace right now. And when I say Russia, I mean the Kremlin, I mean President Putin, the elites around him. It appears that either President Putin is bluffing, or he has been convinced once again by his intelligence experts, by his military that Russia has the upper hand right now. Russia is making very small tactical advances on the ground. And they're trying to present this as some kind of, you know, inexorable, some kind of inevitable victory for Russia. Russia is very far from victory, as you know from all the reporting NPR has done. They're under incredible economic stress.

The United States has an opportunity to force Russia to compromise by putting more pressure on Russia. But right now, the Russian government doesn't want peace. And I'll also add that even if we did get a ceasefire or some kind of peace agreement, I would still be worried for our European allies because President Putin has a wartime economy. He has a wartime politics internally. So it will be hard for him to actually turn, if he can even do it in his own mind, to a peacetime, you know, political situation, environment inside of the Russian Federation.

FADEL: You mentioned more pressure on Russia. At this point, what type of diplomatic effort do you think would actually bring the war to a close if that's even possible?

FARKAS: Well, here's where I don't really see diplomacy as being the key with Russia, because it sounds like President Putin just says, I want peace, I want peace, but does nothing verbally or otherwise to demonstrate he wants peace. As Danielle mentioned, he's been bombarding Ukrainian civilians every night. We need to put economic pressure on the Russian government but also continue the military pressure. We need to provide Ukraine with weapons so that they can put out the - you know, so they can hit in the rear of Russia and put out the Russian refineries, et cetera.

FADEL: Evelyn Farkas is a former Pentagon official who directs the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. Thank you so much for your time.

FARKAS: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Leila Fadel is a national correspondent for NPR based in Los Angeles, covering issues of culture, diversity, and race.