CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: Apart from the economy and issues at home, also at stake is Brazil's increasingly complicated relationship with the United States. President Trump has been flexing his power both politically and militarily in Latin America. And since coming back to office, the last seven presidential elections in the region have all gone to conservative or far-right leaders. Trump likes to take credit for the region's shift to the right, like during this recent exchange with reporters in the Oval Office.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Lots of people that I got elected - and the - that part of our hemisphere is really turning out to be very much different than it was. They've gone from being left to going right. They're all going right.
KAHN: This week, he said he's watching the Brazilian elections very carefully. While he's yet to explicitly endorse Bolsonaro, the Trump administration has revoked visas for officials it says unfairly treated the conservative family, and many of President Trump's steepest tariffs are still levied against some Brazilian exports to the U.S.
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KAHN: There are few workers on the floor of the machinery shop at the Dupps Company in the industrial corridor outside Sao Paulo. Plant manager Leandro Ferreira says his company used to export about $15 million a year in products to the U.S.
LEANDRO FERREIRA: After the tariffs, we dropped down to zero completely.
KAHN: He had to close down an entire shift and lay off 40% of the workforce. They make heavy machinery here used in rendering animal parts for feed and other byproducts. Ferreira says it's not fair that a small company is caught up in Trump's global politics.
FERREIRA: It should not do anything. That's the first thing. Yeah, because we are independent. Other people in other country out of our contact (ph) should not be putting fingers here. But I also agree that we're not handling well.
KAHN: He's referring to Lula's economic policies, which he blames for a lot of his company's financial ills, especially Brazil's high interest rates. For his small business, that's put borrowing out of reach and him squarely in Bolsonaro's camp.
Trump's intervention in Brazilian politics is a big crowd pleaser at Bolsonaro rallies. At one recent gathering, supporters launched a huge inflatable doll of Trump clutching a Lula likeness dressed in prison garb. Flavio Bolsonaro says, if he wins, he will align Brazil more closely with the U.S. That doesn't sit well with Lula's base and energizes them, as well. Trump's interventions have become a vote winner for Lula.
JOEL PEDRO: (Non-English language spoken).
KAHN: Seventy-year-old Joel Pedro (ph) shows off watches to fellow retirees nearby. They gather at this informal market in a rundown outdoor plaza in the industrial city of Maua. All but one of the men are voting for Lula. Pedro says, that's because he'll defend us against Trump.
PEDRO: (Non-English language spoken).
KAHN: "We will end up like Venezuela - slaves to the U.S. and at their mercy - if Bolsonaro wins," he says.
ELISSA NADWORNY, HOST:
OK, wow. A lot to think about there, Carrie. What are you going to be looking for as the results come in?
KAHN: To me, Elissa, the results tomorrow will tell us a lot about how divided Brazil has become and also how disillusioned voters are with the political class here. That's a dynamic that will sound familiar to many in the U.S. The polls open tomorrow at 8 a.m. Brasilia Time and close at 5 p.m. I'm going to sign off from an unusually gray Rio. Hoping for some sun when we talk again tomorrow after Brazilians have cast their votes.
NADWORNY: Thank you, Carrie. We look forward to more of your coverage and your analysis tomorrow.
KAHN: You're welcome.
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