A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For more on this, we've called Shira Efron. She focuses on policy in Israel and the Middle East for the nonpartisan research organization RAND, and she joins us now from Tel Aviv. Shira, Israel and the U.S. started the war against Iran together. And according to the reporting that we just heard, they are preparing plans for another possible attack in as soon as a few weeks. So wondering - how linked politically do you think Trump and Netanyahu are?
SHIRA EFRON: You know, the political connection and policy connections between Trump and Netanyahu did not start with this joint war against Iran, right? If you remember, during Trump's first term, and Netanyahu was prime minister, Netanyahu basically received, if you will, the policy choices by the United States that supported his government the whole time. And Netanyahu himself has basically intervened in U.S. elections - endorsing Trump, visiting him in Mar-a-Lago in the summer of 2024 in the middle of election campaigns. So I think their relationship dates way back to what we are seeing at the moment with political connections, but also with - you know, they're unified in their policy choices on a variety of issues, as reflected in this war...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
EFRON: ...Back on, back off on Iran.
MARTÍNEZ: So if Trump and Netanyahu are committed to seeing this through with Iran, what do you think that means?
EFRON: Listen. We have seen so far that this war, that began in its current phase in the summer of 2025 and then continued starting late February this year, was supposed to deliver a solution to Iran's nuclear program, the ballistic missiles, and deter Iran's proxy networks. There have been remarkable achievements by both sides, but they have yet to lead to a - the strategic victory that Israel and the United States wanted to see.
We are hearing warnings that Iran could be breaking into nuclear weapons again, that they're restocking - rebuilding their ballistic missiles program. And we - in terms of connections to the proxies, the Shia militias in Iraq and obviously Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis, with -whom we speak about very frequently these days - none of these war objectives - gone. So my question is really, what is another round going to achieve that the previous two rounds has not achieved? And what does finishing the job mean in the context of this campaign?
MARTÍNEZ: So then what do you make of Israel planning for an attack before its elections but then pushing it back because President Trump objected?
EFRON: So this is blatant interference. If Israel had really, as reported, planned for another strike on Iran so close to its own elections, this could not be seen as something else but try to postpone the elections - a choice by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is lagging in the polls. Since I - you know, in the Middle East, the prophecy was given to the fools. So we can wake up with an attack on Iran in the next few days, but it's not as likely as it was before the Israeli elections.
But there's clearly a political consideration here that Netanyahu can explain with a policy preference. And objectively, this war so far has not achieved what it has intended to achieve. The question is really whether Israel can continue to try to think of mowing the grass, sort of going for another campaign in Iran every six months or so...
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
EFRON: ...Until this regime falls. It is my professional assessment that this is not a sustainable strategy.
MARTÍNEZ: You mentioned how Netanyahu is lagging in the polls. How much is his relationship with President Trump part of the reason? Or all of it, maybe?
EFRON: Well, actually, President Trump still enjoys very high approval ratings in Israel. If I remember the numbers correctly, even after some Israeli disappointment from the interim outcome in Iran in the summer, his approval ratings among the Jewish population moved from the 90s to close to 80%. So it would have - actually supposed to boost Netanyahu's credentials. Many Israelis - and this is something that I think would - is important to know for outsiders - even those who are very much in the opposition and would do anything in their power to remove Netanyahu from government - they still have tremendous respect for Trump because they think that the Israeli hostages would not have returned home if it wasn't for the interference of the - and the pressure of the president.
MARTÍNEZ: Shira Efron focuses on policy in Israel and the Middle East for RAND. Shira, thanks.
EFRON: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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