STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Larry Sabato has been listening with us. He is director of the Center for politics at the University of Virginia and the namesake of Sabato's Crystal Ball, the politics newsletter. Larry, welcome back.
LARRY SABATO: Thank you, Steve.
INSKEEP: OK, let's follow up on what Mara just was talking about there. For many Republicans, the ones who didn't lose, the question is whether to keep following Trump. And it does occur to me that for many of those Republicans, the next election they face will be a primary, where Trump might still be very influential. Do Republicans still need to listen to the president?
SABATO: Absolutely, because he will still take out after them. When does Trump change? And I would suggest to you never. He's the same candidate and president he was in the beginning. Few little differences. He's not going to change. And therefore, the members of Congress in his caucus are risking their seats first in the primary. They'll risk their seats in the general, second, after they follow Trump again.
INSKEEP: However, we seem to have some cracking in Trump's coalition. Is that not really true of core supporters?
SABATO: I think some core supporters, but a large majority still adheres to MAGA or super MAGA, and certainly Trump. And that's not going to change until Trump is off the stage. And when I say off the stage, I mean, out of office. And to some degree, he'll still be tweeting and criticizing other Republicans for as long as he lives.
INSKEEP: I wonder if Trump has an opportunity in this situation because he's going to be facing a Democratic Congress. He can portray them as more dangerous. If they get legislation through the Senate, it goes to his desk. He can veto it. He's also talking about himself as Mr. Veto.
SABATO: Well, I'm sure he will veto a lot. But, you know, what that says - it says the Democrats in the House and Senate got together and tried to solve affordability problems, tried to do something about the corruption. Lots of things they can do. And then the veto comes, and guess who's going to get the blame for nothing getting done? Donald Trump.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about one thing that people seem to want to change. Vice President Vance has a social media post this morning, and one of the things that he says is, quote, "the reason we lost is the war," referring, of course, to the war in Iran. First off, do you believe that's correct?
SABATO: That is part of the answer, but it's only part. They won't acknowledge the other things - like corruption, like the fact that they've done nothing but cause the affordability issue to become bigger and more difficult for Americans. They won't admit that.
INSKEEP: Meaning that you think that they're - that even if the war ended tomorrow, the party would still have big problems.
SABATO: Absolutely. It's going to take a long time to get back to what we once called normal.
INSKEEP: And yet, at the same time, I was thinking about that. Let's take that at its face value. The reason we lost is the war, says Vice President Vance. We can amend it and say, one reason Republicans lost is the war. The war is not going anywhere. We have these news reports about the possibility of further strikes now that the elections are over. And in any case, even though the president himself has seemed to want to just get out of the war and back away and stop it, that doesn't turn out to be possible. The Iranians seem to have too much leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. You can't just walk away. Is the reality that the Republican Party is still going to have this war around its neck for some time?
SABATO: Absolutely. They are stuck with this war, which made no sense to begin with and was poorly planned. And beyond that, even if somehow they can end this war, the effects of the war and the expenses of hundreds of billions of dollars - probably, by then - will still have an impact on Americans. They can't do anything about that. And again, the next election is two years away, but the nomination process begins much more quickly. And the candidates are going to have to discuss this. And there's no answer that Donald Trump will like other than, Donald Trump is terrific and did all the right things.
INSKEEP: I want to ask about whether this result clears the way for the Republican side of the nominating process for the 2028 presidential campaign. Now, like it or not, that campaign - I mean, it's quietly already begun, really, but, you know, we're going to find out that many, many Democrats are running for this open seat. There's been some doubt on the Republican side. The president himself talked about running for an illegal third term. People have assumed that JD Vance is the heir apparent. Do you think there is now room for other Republicans to explore things?
SABATO: Absolutely. But some of these other Republicans are even more pro-Trump than Vance is. You're not going to find Ted Cruz disagreeing with the basic tenet of Trumpism, and he's the most likely to run. Senator Scott in Florida is interested, too, again, totally devoted to Trump. You can run away from your record, but your record catches up.
INSKEEP: I guess we should mention Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, although he has said explicitly, Vance is going to be the nominee. It's not going to be me.
SABATO: Yeah. He can wake up tomorrow and say something very different...
INSKEEP: (Laughter).
SABATO: ...As a politician.
INSKEEP: I suppose that's true. Let's talk for a moment about the Democratic side here, if we can. We have asked a number of Democrats through the morning to interpret this win for us. And our question is, is this an opportunity or a mandate? By which we mean, did the voters give you a chance because they dislike the president, or are the voters telling you to go and pass everything that you want to pass? First, how do you see this result?
SABATO: I see it as the public saying, we need a change from Trump's policies. We're tired of Trump. There's nothing they can do about that for two years. But Democrats can show what really matters to them, and surely, they've just learned that from people on the campaign trail. But can they control the more extreme members of that caucus? This was no endorsement of the Democratic Party, not with the current leadership, and they seem to be intent upon keeping the current leadership.
INSKEEP: Although I should think that through. So you're saying, can they control the more extreme members? I guess you would mean the more far-left or democratic socialist or progressive members of their caucus. That's who you're talking about, right?
SABATO: I'm talking about them, and there are a few others throughout the ideological spectrum. But here's the advantage for the Democratic leadership. They have won so many house seats, and we're not even close to the total yet. It will be in the 250s or even 260s.
INSKEEP: Wow.
SABATO: They can afford to ignore those extreme members, isolate them, and they can compare the caucus, the midpoint of the caucus, to the more extreme members. It will actually help the Democrats. The worst situation would have been ending up in the 220s, with 218 being a majority. Then they would have had to have been responsible to the democratic socialists. Now they don't, if they're courageous enough to do it. We'll see.
INSKEEP: I just want to be clear on the numbers here. As far as official race calls, NPR says 222 House seats for Democrats, but dozens are uncalled, could get up around 250. And if that happens, Democrats on any given vote in the House of Representatives could literally lose dozens of people saying no, and they would still pass the legislation they want to pass. That's what you're telling me.
SABATO: That's right, and it's ideal, by the way, for those members, because they can vote their constituency and ignore the leadership and still get reelected, and the leadership can still get its agenda passed.
INSKEEP: And I guess we should also mention in the Senate with 54 members, someone like John Fetterman can't stand in the way of whatever it is that Democrats want to do. Larry, thanks so much for the insights. Really appreciate it.
SABATO: Thank you, Steve. Always enjoy it.
INSKEEP: That's political analyst Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia. And we're talking about last night's big election win for Democrats, who captured both Houses of Congress. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
