ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
Meanwhile, Democrats will have a majority in both chambers of Congress next year, and with the midterms behind them, they're looking to the 2028 presidential race. But there are differences within the Democratic Party on where U.S. foreign policy goes from here. Tom Wright is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and was a senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council in the Biden administration. His latest article in Foreign Affairs is titled "The Fight For The Future Of Democratic Foreign Policy." Welcome.
TOM WRIGHT: Thank you. It's good to be with you.
SCHMITZ: So I've been an international correspondent for 16 years, but the last two may have been the busiest. The Trump administration threatened to take Greenland. It swooped into Venezuelan and snatched its authoritarian leader. It launched a trade war with the world's biggest economies, and it started a war with Iran. Looking ahead to 2028, what is the Democratic strategy on how to conduct foreign policy in the wake of this second term of President Trump?
WRIGHT: Yeah, I think we're headed for a debate between different groups. Everyone agrees, I think, that Donald Trump has taken U.S. foreign policy in a destabilizing and dangerous direction. Everyone opposes, you know, the war in Iran and his attempt to take Greenland and the full-scale trade war. But there are, I think, substantive differences emerging on this sort of affirmative case that a future Democratic administration should make and whether or not they should build on what the Biden administration did or go in a more progressive direction. And I think those debates are very early, but I think that's what we can expect over the next 18 months of a primary campaign.
SCHMITZ: So let's dig into these differences a little. The U.S. war with Iran and its impact on fuel prices were decisive issues in the midterms. An SSRS poll of voters showed that 63% of voters said the war in Iran was the wrong decision. We don't know how or when that conflict will resolve. How do you think Democrats might try to deal with the war if it is still an issue come January?
WRIGHT: Everyone, whether their centrists or progressive, you know, opposed the war that began on February 28 of this year. But as we get into a new Congress, there will probably be votes on funding the rest of the military. Basically, all of the potential candidates believe that this was the wrong decision, and they've criticized it from the beginning, and they want to bring it to an end. I think they also recognize that there's no good options at this point, that we're in a situation of Donald Trump's making where there isn't really a good deal on the table, and there certainly aren't good military options. So any end is likely to be messy and suboptimal.
SCHMITZ: Well, elsewhere in the Middle East, you know, one consistent sticking point within the Democratic Party is, of course, Israel. We could see the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership as prime minister soon. Explain the big division among Democrats on Israel.
WRIGHT: That's definitely, I think, the most contentious issue. The progressives have tended to go further, and they've argued for more sort of sustained pressure on Israel. So I think there's been a shift on both sides, so to speak, but there will still be a debate about how far that change should go.
SCHMITZ: There is also division among Democrats on how to handle China. Are Democrats more likely to deal with China as a threat or as a potential partner?
WRIGHT: That's a big debate. I think the Biden administration treated China as a competitor...
SCHMITZ: Right.
WRIGHT: ...And had a strategy of, you know, managed competition. The Trump administration has generally stepped back from strategic competition. Some progressives have actually welcomed the Trump administration's policy, particularly in the second year, as creating real breathing room, as they call it, in U.S.-China relations. And I think Democrats are set up for a big debate about whether or not to go back to some version of managed competition.
SCHMITZ: We've been talking about a lot of divisions within the Democratic Party on foreign policy. I want to move here to Russia and its war with Ukraine. Is this an area where Democrats might find more common ground?
WRIGHT: Yeah, Europe really hasn't figured all that much, and Russia-Ukraine hasn't figured all that much in the internal debates over the last couple of years. There's really very few, if any, on the progressive side who, you know, are sympathetic to Putin or Russia. There's broad agreement that Putin is a dangerous and destabilizing influence in world affairs, that the U.S. can't really cooperate or work with Russia. I think the new Congress is likely to appropriate more funding for Ukraine. My expectation would be that progressives would support that. So - but it is, I think, one of those issues that has not really arisen yet in the internal debate, which suggests to me that, basically, all sides are generally comfortable with some policy of support for Ukraine.
SCHMITZ: The lesson of the midterms is that American voters turned out for mostly domestic issues. To what extent will foreign policy be a priority for Democrats?
WRIGHT: Yeah, I think foreign policy actually featured more in this midterm election maybe than in any midterm election that I can think of since just after 9/11 because it was - obviously, the Iran war and its effect on affordability was a major concern, particularly in red states, but also, I think tariffs had a huge impact in Ohio and Kansas.
SCHMITZ: I mean, these are domestic issues with foreign causes, right?
WRIGHT: Right. But they are - they're foreign policy issues decisions that I think had a domestic impact...
SCHMITZ: Right.
WRIGHT: ...In terms of the consequences. So, you know, tariffs is a trade, you know, policy decision. The war in Iran clearly was a foreign policy decision. But they directly impacted on voters in the United States. And I think that, you know, may still be the case in 2028, in that if Donald Trump continues to wage war in Iran, which I think it's quite possible - even if he would like to get out, Iran may not facilitate that on terms that will be acceptable to him - if he continues to push on tariffs and if there are new, you know, decisions and actions that have real repercussions, I think that will impact on voters pretty directly.
And then I think there are very large questions to do with China, Russia and others that reflect, you know, the fact that the international situation today is probably one of the most difficult and fraught in many decades. And so the stakes are quite high. And so I think there will be a pretty fundamental choice presented to the voters, both in the primary campaign and then in the general election, and that's right and proper and as it should be.
SCHMITZ: That is Tom Wright. He's a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Thanks.
WRIGHT: Thank you.
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