Climatologists affiliated with the National Weather Service say there is increasing confidence that the currently building El Niño phenomenon will develop into a strong El Niño incident.
That’s potentially good news for a drought-stricken California. Strong El Niño periods, like the winters of 82-83 and 97-98 are associated with heavy, drought-busting deluges in the state. Weak to moderate El Niños appear to have little effect locally.
In an update released Thursday, the weather service’s climate prediction center put the odds of El Niño conditions continuing through the winter at 85 percent. For the first time, a small majority of forecasters are predicting that this El Niño will be a strong one.
El Niño’s are marked by higher water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The warmer water causes trade winds to fail, causing other disruptions to normal weather patterns. El Nino’s are associated with drought in Australia and Indonesia, warmth in the Pacific Northwest and below normal Atlantic hurricane seasons.