TAMARA KEITH, HOST:
On Christmas Day, the U.S. launched what President Trump called a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS. The attack targeted region in northern Nigeria where President Trump said that ISIS has been, quote, "viciously killing primarily innocent Christians at levels not seen for many years." Joining us now is Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also directs the Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map Project. Welcome to the program.
AARON ZELIN: Thanks for having me.
KEITH: Let's zero in on this region in northwest Nigeria where the U.S. strikes took place. Does ISIS, in fact, control that area, or is it primarily other groups?
ZELIN: As far as we know, the Islamic State does not control any territory in northwest Nigeria. It's more of a transient area between that area of the country and other conflicts in neighboring countries like Niger and Mali. On the other hand, in northeast Nigeria, the Islamic State does control territory there.
KEITH: I want to go to another aspect of this story. President Trump first directed attention to Nigeria back in November with a video posted on social media.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria. Thousands and thousands of Christians are being killed. Radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter.
KEITH: So I do want to ask you about that narrative that Christians are the main targets. Is that an accurate description of what's happening on the ground in Nigeria?
ZELIN: There's definitely some attacks by the Islamic State against Christians, but they also are attacking Muslims, as well, that don't believe in their extremist world view. Plus, much of the Christian population in Nigeria is more in the central and southern parts of the country than instead of the north, whereas the north is majority Muslim. And so, while it is true that the Islamic State has targeted Christians, people talking about a genocide from a legal definition standpoint, it doesn't hold up.
KEITH: So is the focus then on Christianity more about domestic politics here in the U.S.? It certainly has elevated what's happening in Nigeria to the point where Nicki Minaj was talking about it recently.
ZELIN: Yeah, there's definitely a component of this related to domestic politics than it being specific to Nigeria. Of course, we shouldn't underestimate the fact that the Islamic State has targeted Christians, but they've also targeted Muslims, too. But we've seen this, broadly speaking, related to other issues, not just in Nigeria, as well, where people have worried about the fate of Christians in other countries, too, such as Syria - has become a huge, you know, domestic political debate, as well.
KEITH: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that these strikes were done with support and cooperation from Nigeria, and he said that there would be more to come. What does the Nigerian government gain from cooperating with the U.S. on this?
ZELIN: For the Nigerian government, this could be access to more weapons from the U.S., as well as aid from the U.S. related to the military fight against the Islamic State, as well as, you know, from a domestic perspective, other enemies that they might have that they might want to go after. We've seen this in many other contexts in other countries. And it's important to remember that the issue of the Islamic State is not just in Nigeria, but it's this cross-border issue in West Africa and the Sahel in general. And many of the surrounding countries of Nigeria are actually allied with Russia now, fighting against the Islamic State as well as al-Qaida. And so there isn't cross-border coordination so much at this point.
KEITH: How does this fit in with the Trump administration's foreign policy doctrine or approach? And how does this compare with how past presidents have approached this region?
ZELIN: In the past, much of what the U.S. did was supporting the local governments in the fight instead of directly doing it themselves. In many ways, it highlights how for the Trump administration, not only with this but all of the so-called peace agreements that he's done since the beginning of the year, that they're very flashy but the question is always about follow-up and whether there's long-term sustainability to these policies.
KEITH: What are you watching for next year?
ZELIN: I mean, going into 2026, one of the trends we've seen with the Islamic State in particular is that it's continued to get stronger and stronger in parts of Africa, where its original base in Iraq and Syria have gotten weaker since it lost territory in 2019. And so zeroing in on places like Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the region of the Sahel and West Africa, in general, related to the jihadi movement, will likely take precedence over other counterterrorism issues in the context of the jihadi movement.
KEITH: Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, speaking with us about recent U.S. military strikes in northwest Nigeria. Thank you for joining us.
ZELIN: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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