Nearly a month after a gunman killed two people at Chico’s public library, Butte County has placed unarmed guards at its other branches while it considers long-term security changes.
But what role can guards play in stopping an attack once it’s underway?
Research from the RAND Corporation suggests guards can make a difference during an attack.
“They can slow a person down, engage them, potentially deter them or stop them from going in."- John Hollywood, RAND Corporation researcher
John Hollywood, a senior operations researcher at the nonpartisan think tank, studies security during mass attacks and led development of the organization’s Mass Attacks Defense Toolkit.
Hollywood and his team analyzed more than 600 mass attacks and plots.
In 19 cases, an armed security guard or off-duty police officer tried to stop a shooting. They were successful about 90% of the time.
Hollywood said there have been cases where guards — even unarmed ones — used their authority to persuade shooters to stop or physically disarmed them.
A key role any type of security guard can play is serving as a first line of defense, he said.
“If they're stationed at the front, if they see something that looks really suspicious, they can slow a person down, engage them, potentially deter them or stop them from going in,” Hollywood said.
Guards can also warn people about an attacker, Hollywood said, buying them valuable time to escape or get to a secure room.
Still, he cautioned against relying too heavily on guards.
"The more layers of security that a would-be attacker has to get through, the more likely they are to be caught up and fail."- John Hollywood, RAND Corporation researcher
In some attacks, guards have been targeted first, bypassed or didn’t engage for some reason. That’s why Hollywood said they should be one part of a broader security strategy that includes staff training, emergency protocols and doors that can be quickly locked.
“The idea being that the more layers of security that a would-be attacker has to get through, the more likely they are to be caught up and fail,” Hollywood said.
Even with those benefits, Hollywood said policymakers still have to weigh whether the cost of security guards makes sense.
Active shooter incidents are rare, he said, and guards cost more than other security options.
“It's a lot more expensive to hire people,” he said. “If you think you have buildings that are receiving more threats … maybe that's a place where you do start looking at guards.”
That cost difference is reflected in Butte County’s library contract with a private security company, Armed Guard Private Security, Inc.
The contract shows services for unarmed guards cost $25 an hour. County officials said they didn't choose that option at the Chico branch because they didn't believe it was necessary.
Instead, the county chose mobile security services that periodically check properties for $8.50 per patrol.
None were on site when the shooting happened.
Although mass shootings are uncommon, Hollywood said people should still know how to respond if one happens.
He recommends remembering three steps: run, hide, fight.
But he said the most critical work happens before an attack begins.
That involves the public learning how to recognize people who demonstrate a desire to commit violence before they have a chance to act, he said.
"There are very much observable warning signs," Hollywood said. "Perhaps the most important layer of security is actually prevention."
