Editor’s note: You can listen to the full interview with Charles Turner, professor of political science at Chico State, here or at the end of this story.
As a nationwide redistricting battle heats up, California is looking to redraw election maps to get rid of five Republican house seats representing the state. Two of those seats are held by North State representatives — U.S. Congressman Doug LaMalfa of District 1 and U.S. Congressman Kevin Kiley of District 3.
California legislators have until Aug. 22 to decide on plans to hold a special election for the public to vote on new maps. LaMalfa and Kiley have both spoken against redistricting on both sides of the political aisle, with Kiley authoring a bill to bar redistricting from happening in the middle of a decade.
How this process normally works
Redistricting is required by the U.S. Constitution. Typically, redistricting happens at the beginning of a decade and is based on the U.S. Census Bureau population data, said Charles Turner, a political science professor at Chico State.
“That's why we take a census in that year that ends with zero every 10 years,” Turner said. “It's to count the number of people in the country so that we can allocate seats in Congress, so that … each member of Congress is representing about the same number of people.”
After every redistricting period, states will gain or lose seats in the House of Representatives based on the state’s population. Districts are redrawn to reflect changes in population.
“If it’s just partisan gerrymandering, that’s okay. And in fact, you can’t even make that argument in court. The courts will not listen to an argument that says this is a political or a partisan gerrymander …”- Charles Turner, Chico State political science professor
Many states complete this process through the state legislature, though for the last 15 years, California has been using an independent redistricting commission. California is made up of 14 people — five Republicans, five Democrats and four people not affiliated with either party.
“The goal was to kind of get away from partisan politics and entrenched interests a little bit,” Turner said. “That was something we voted on, and we said, ‘Yeah, we want to take this out of the hands of the state legislature and give it back to the people through this appointed commission.’”
The proposed special election in November would ask voters to replace maps drawn by the commission.
Why this fight is different
In the past, redrawing district maps mid-decade was often seen as gerrymandering. That’s when political boundaries are redrawn to support narrow interests based on things like race or individual goals rather than the public interest.
Courts had once agreed, but a 2019 ruling found that partisan redistricting is constitutionally justified.
“If it's just partisan gerrymandering, that's okay. And in fact, you can't even make that argument in court. The courts will not listen to an argument that says this is a political or a partisan gerrymander because there's nothing wrong with that, according to the Supreme Court,” Turner said.
Partisan lines are the heart of the current war. President Donald Trump had asked Texas to redraw their maps to earn more Republican seats for the 2026 midterm elections so the party doesn’t lose control of the house.
“That's not Trump being paranoid. That is a pretty realistic thing that tends to happen in that midterm election. The incumbent president's party tends to lose some seats, and there's a very narrow Republican majority in the House right now,” Turner said.
California’s redistricting efforts would be done to “neutralize” Texas’s efforts. Gov. Gavin Newsom said the special election will only go through if Texas doesn’t stop their redistricting.
What it could mean for the North State
If North State district maps are redrawn, there could be more competition in elections, Turner said. That’s because Democratic and Republican voting populations would be combined, with one group potentially only holding a thin margin.
Turner said it unintentionally creates a balance in politics.
“Political scientists tend to say that a competitive election keeps the politicians honest, right? It keeps them more responsible to the people because they know they have to actually go out and come and campaign and defend their record,” he said.
Turner said that this could lead to elected officials who were comfortable in their seats having to be more diligent on the campaign trail — something that may already be playing out.
“Party registration and how people have voted in the past is really just one factor. It doesn’t necessarily guarantee the outcomes because you’ve got candidates as well.”- Charles Turner, Chico State political science professor
Earlier this week, LaMalfa held a contentious town hall in Chico for the first time in eight years. Turner said that it could be a coincidence that the event was scheduled after redistricting talks began.
“He didn't have that kind of forum at all for many years. And then, yeah, there's this idea that, ‘Oh, they might be redrawing this district. Hey, I better get out there,’” Turner said.
Redistricting in California can be both a short-term and long-term gamble, he said. In the 2026 midterms districts could have a Democratic majority, but switch back to a Republican leaning majority later on due to a thin margin of voters on either side.
“Maybe you’ve now created two Republican districts where, whereas previously, you had one Democratic and one Republican one,” Turner said.
Though future races could be tight if mid-decade redistricting happens in California, he said it depends on if there are strong Democratic opponents.
“Party registration and how people have voted in the past is really just one factor. It doesn't necessarily guarantee the outcomes because you've got candidates as well,” Turner said.
